The reason why big shots would fear people finding out that “nobody knows anything” is simple: financiers pour millions into every movie that gets made. Studios aren’t sitting around with kajillions in the bank – they have to convince people with money to back their movies, and those people expect a good return on their investment. Movies are a form of speculation, and no one likes to speculate. Investors like to hear what sounds like convincing evidence a movie they’re backing will make them money.

The age-old example here is the original Star Wars. It wasn’t supposed to make more than a modest profit (and that, only because it was so low budget). Fox thought it was crap. To their amazement, it lined people up around the block on the first day. It launched a merchandise line that’s still churning obnoxiously (but so profitably) to this day. It launched a crazily successful franchise. All because – despite being a rip-off of any number of artistically superior movies – it wasn’t quite like anything anyone had seen before.

Lucas had made a movie people didn’t know they wanted to see. If you’d polled them, they wouldn’t have promised to see it. If you’d made something similar to test the waters, it might have flopped laughably (many similar movies have). In short, there was no predicting the success of one of the most successful movies of all time.

Sometimes it feels like film execs have spent the last three decades just trying to make sure nothing like that ever happens again. And that’s basically what Goldman is saying: they are more afraid of having to explain a success that breaks the mold than of explaining a failure that fit it. Everybody knows at the end of the day no stock expert can guarantee you the right investments – no movie is guaranteed, either. But when a movie succeeds inexplicably, potential investors start to wonder if you really know what the audience wants to see. - Jennifer Keslerclick to jump to the full article.

'nobody knows anything' tees